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Launch Plan Builder for Restaurants
The owner asked this:"I am opening the third location in Laureles on 15 October and the lease is already signed. I do not want a repeat of the 2024 opening: it started full and by week three the dining room was empty."
① Block A · the launch type and its discards
It is a new location, and that decides everything else. It is not sold to the customers of the two locations already running: it is sold to whoever walks through Laureles and does not yet know Sazón de Origen exists. That is why the count runs 8 weeks and not 4, and why the kitchen front weighs more than the media front.
| Type | Who it is sold to | How it fails | Weeks of countdown | Figure that declares it alive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New location | The neighbourhood, 800 metres around | On capacity: it fills on day one with a green line | 8 | Covers per day in week four |
| New menu | The guest who already comes | On mix: the new dish steals sales from the Bandeja de la casa and drags the margin down | 4 | Contribution margin of the mix, not total sales |
| New channel | An eating occasion nobody serves today | On its own economics: commission, packaging and transit | 6 | Channel contribution margin after commission |
The two discards, in writing. It is not a new menu: the nine opening dishes are already on the menu at the other two locations and change nothing for the weekday lunch professional or the Sunday family. Treating it that way would have put the effort into the mix instead of into the line, which is where the real risk sits.
Nor is it a new channel, even though your own delivery starts at this location: the channel already exists, already has its delivery zone and already has its economics measured at the other two. Folding it into the same count would have added a second debut on the same day, and debuting a slot and a product at once is the flaw this method rules out first. Laureles' own delivery starts in week two, with the kitchen already broken in.
② Block B · the capacity test and the cap
Two closed-door services, with real product and the 8 people who will work on 15 October. What came out of that rules over the seating plan.
| Slot | Sustained dishes per hour | Ticket time at the peak | Covers it holds | Day-one cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lunch 12:00–14:30 | 38 | 9 minutes up to dish 30; 21 minutes at the peak of 46 | 73 | 60 |
The arithmetic, so it can be argued with: 38 sustained dishes per hour across the 2.5 hours of lunch is 95 dishes, and at 1.3 dishes per cover —the average of the two locations already running— that is 73 covers. The day-one cap was set at 60, 18% under what was measured, because a line that has been together for two weeks does not perform the same with a full room and the door ringing. The 60 are spread across 30-minute booking slots, not a queue.
It opens with 9 dishes out of the 24 on the menu. The three that already carry the sale and six that came out under 12 minutes in both rehearsals.
| Dish | Menu price | Cost per portion | Food cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bandeja de la casa | 46,000 COP | 14,700 COP | 32% |
| Sancocho de tres carnes | 44,000 COP | 14,100 COP | 32% |
| Trucha al ajillo | 52,000 COP | 18,700 COP | 36% |
SUPUESTO: the short menu's target food cost is the 32% you declared for this house, not a sector average. If Sazón de Origen's real target were 35%, the Trucha al ajillo would stop being a finding and the menu price would stay where it is.
A finding on the Trucha al ajillo: at 52,000 COP it will not come down to the declared target without cutting the portion weight, and cutting it on opening day is the worst possible first impression. There the problem is not the offer, it is the menu price: to fit under the target it would have to sell at 58,400 COP, still inside the 28,000 to 72,000 range. It goes on the short menu at its normal price and stays out of any welcome plate. Illustrative figures, built from the data you gave.
③ Block C · the launch account and its cut-off
The new location's monthly fixed costs, all assumed until you confirm them: payroll for 8 people 24,000,000 COP, rent and utilities 11,000,000 COP, other fixed costs —insurance, platforms, maintenance— 4,000,000 COP. That is 39,000,000 COP a month.
With the 48,000 COP average check and the 34% menu food cost, every cover leaves 31,680 COP of contribution margin. The location pays its month with 1,231 covers, which across 26 service days is 48 covers per day. That 48 is the line read every Monday for the following four weeks.
Opening spend is kept apart and never touches the plate: two rehearsals with 120 courtesy covers at raw material cost (1,958,400 COP), three days of line training for 8 people (3,840,000 COP), leafleting and local media within 800 metres (3,200,000 COP), short menu printing and signage (1,400,000 COP) and the corozo lemonade welcome for the first 60 (108,000 COP). Total 10,506,400 COP, recovered with 332 covers above break-even: at week-four pace, some 24 service days.
The decision cut-off lands on Thursday 1 October, and it is read at 9 in the morning.
| Signal | Threshold at 14 days | Where it comes from | What happens if it falls short | Who signs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rehearsal signed off | 38 sustained dishes per hour | The chef's log | Postpone by two weeks | Chef |
| Line trained | 8 of 8 running the short menu on time | Training record | Open with 6 dishes, not 9 | Floor chief |
| Suppliers | 3 of 3 confirmed delivering to Laureles | Confirmation email | Postpone; this one is not negotiable | Administration |
| Day-one bookings | 40 of the 60 seats | Room diary and WhatsApp | Open with no media buy and leaflet within 300 metres | You |
Postponing by two weeks costs 18,200,000 COP in fixed costs, and that figure goes written next to the decision. It is not there to frighten anyone: it is there so postponing is decided with the number in sight rather than with the gut.
The full example has 2 more part(s): you see them inside the library, with your account.